Colorado State University’s 2025 Atlantic hurricane forecast leans above average
How will this affect summer travel plans for Arizonans?
PHOENIX (AZFamily) — The tropical experts at Colorado State University are predicting an above-average 2025 Atlantic Hurricane season.
CSU is forecasting 17 named storms, nine hurricanes and four major hurricanes. The 1991-2020 average is 14.4 names storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes.
The warm ocean water in areas where Atlantic hurricanes tend to form is one reason for the above-normal prediction. The map below shows sea surface temperature anomalies as of April 3. The red and orange colors show where there are above-normal temperatures; notice all of the orange and red in the Gulf, Caribbean and a good part of the central Atlantic.
Current weather projections favor a general pattern of continued ocean warmth in the above mentioned regions as we head into hurricane season, which starts on June 1. Warm ocean water acts as fuel for hurricanes.
Another reason for the potentially active hurricane season is the state of ENSO, which stands for El Niño Southern Oscillation. Currently, a weak La Niña is present, but this may fade into over the next few months.
There are signs that La Niña could return later this year during the hurricane season. In general, La Niña tends to bring above-normal Atlantic hurricane activity, while El Niño tends to bring below-normal activity.
CSU broke down their prediction into different regions in the US and Caribbean. For example, they forecast a 26% chance of a landfall hurricane somewhere on the US East Coast, including eastern Florida. This is above the 1880-2020 average of a 21% chance. They forecast a 33% chance of a hurricane making landfall along the Gulf Coast, which is above the average chance of 27%.
For Arizonans who have trips planned to Miami, New Orleans or the Carolina coast, it’s too early to know if and when a hurricane will strike. However, when it gets close to the date of your trip, it will be a good idea to stay tuned into the latest hurricane forecasts, as signs suggest this could be an active year.
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