How the 2025 hurricane season could impact your summer plans
PHOENIX (AZFamily) — AccuWeather has issued its 2025 Atlantic hurricane forecast this week, which expects a “near to above normal” season.
This is just one of several hurricane forecasts to be issued this year. NOAA typically issues its forecast later in the spring.
AccuWeather predicts 13 to 18 named storms, which skews on the higher end of the 30-year historical average of 14 named storms. The company is also forecasting 7 to 10 hurricanes, which leans higher than the 30-year historical average of 7 hurricanes.
There are many factors that go into a hurricane forecast, and a big one is ocean temperature. Hurricanes and tropical storms feed off of warm water, and sea surface temperatures are warmer than normal in much of the Gulf, Caribbean, and Atlantic Ocean.
This is shown by the NOAA map below. Red colors show above-normal sea surface temperatures, and blue colors show below-normal sea surface temperatures. Look at all of that warm water in the Atlantic!
Another factor could be the development of La Niña later this autumn, however this is far from a guarantee. The presence of La Niña tends to lead to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
The latest update from the Climate Prediction Center in mid-March shows La Niña is still lingering, but it will likely fade to neutral later this spring or summer. However, the Climate Prediction Center forecasts just above a 40% chance of La Niña returning October through December.
Check out their forecast below. The blue bars show the chance of La Niña. Notice how the chance of La Niña dips later this spring but increases a bit later this year.
If La Niña ends up returning during this time, this could lead to a more active end of the hurricane season.
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