NOAA leaning towards active monsoon season in Arizona

PHOENIX (AZFamily) — We know that the 2024 monsoon was kind of a dud, but there may be hope for this year.

NOAA recently issued a forecast for July through September (otherwise known as monsoon season) that leans “above normal” for Arizona precipitation.

The green colors in the map below show the degree of confidence in the forecast. The slightly darker green shows that they are slightly more confident in above-normal precipitation in northeastern Arizona and not quite as confident in western Arizona.

I am intentionally using the word “leaning” because confidence in long-term precipitation forecasts usually have a decent amount of uncertainty.

For example, here is this same forecast looking at Phoenix specifically:

In the bottom left corner in the graphic above, notice the pie chart for the Precipitation Outlook. The NOAA prediction shows a 39% chance of above-normal precipitation for the summer, a 28% chance of below-normal precipitation and a 33% chance of near-normal precipitation.

While the “above normal” category has the highest chance, notice that it is still below 50%. In other words, we are not sure what is going to happen, but if we had to put our chips into one category, it would be for above-normal precipitation. Normal precipitation during this time is around 2.7 inches.

This prediction is based on many factors, but I found one factor especially interesting. In their discussion, NOAA points out that a hot and dry spring may lead to hot and dry land surfaces, and the heat from these surfaces could fuel an active monsoon season. We are still several months away from the start of the monsoon, so please check back for updates as we get closer to summer.

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