Climate Prediction Center leaning drier than normal in Arizona through April

PHOENIX (AZFamily) — The Climate Prediction Center issued its new forecast for February through April. It’s not great news if you are a snow-lover in Arizona, but these longer-term forecasts always have high uncertainty and are not set in stone.

From February through April, the CPC is leaning warmer than normal in Arizona. However, they only forecast this with a 33% to 50% confidence. For southeast Arizona, they are forecasting warmer-than-normal temperatures with a 50% to 60% confidence.

For precipitation, the CPC is leaning drier than normal in Arizona. They are doing this with a 33% to 50% confidence for most of Arizona but a 50% to 60% confidence in southeastern Arizona.

So, what are the reasons behind this forecast? One of many tools that long-term forecasters use is the state of El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions. Right now, La Niña is in place, and it may stick around for a bit. The map below shows what “typically” happens during La Niña winters.

In the two maps above, notice the similarities between a “typical” La Nina winter and the forecast for February through April. The state of La Nina is not the only tool used to make the forecast, but it is an important part of this prediction. Finally, not all La Nina(s) behave the same, and sometimes they go against the “typical” trend.

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